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Peter Arnfalk

Peter Arnfalk

Senior lecturer

Peter Arnfalk

Experience with a System Dynamics model in a prospective study on the future impact of ICT on environmental sustainability

Author

  • Patrick A. Wäger
  • Lorenz M. Hilty
  • Peter Arnfalk
  • Lorenz Erdmann
  • James Goodman

Summary, in English

To assess the potential impact of ICT on environmental sustainability in the European Union within a time horizon until 2020, we developed a System Dynamics model. In our contribution we make a critical, retrospective evaluation of the model with regard to the requirements and expectations of the project commissioners and of experts involved in the modeling and simulation process. The issues addressed are problem adequacy, validity, transparency, communicability and receptivity of the model. We conclude that modeling approaches that better support a modular model design than System Dynamics does would lead to better results regarding these requirements, and that a modeling language based on a more domain-specific ontology than System Dynamics would be needed to create models that are communicable and have an adequate epistemic connectivity to the scientific and political discourse.

Department/s

  • The International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics

Publishing year

2006-12-01

Language

English

Publication/Series

Proceedings of the iEMSs 3rd Biennial Meeting,Summit on Environmental Modelling and Software

Document type

Conference paper

Topic

  • Social Sciences Interdisciplinary

Keywords

  • Environmental modeling
  • Information and communication technologies
  • Prospective studies
  • Socio-economic modeling
  • Sustainable development
  • System Dynamics

Conference name

3rd Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society: Summit on Environmental Modelling and Software, iEMSs 2006

Conference date

2006-07-09 - 2006-07-13

Conference place

Burlington, VT, United States

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISBN: 1424308526
  • ISBN: 9781424308521