The browser you are using is not supported by this website. All versions of Internet Explorer are no longer supported, either by us or Microsoft (read more here: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support).

Please use a modern browser to fully experience our website, such as the newest versions of Edge, Chrome, Firefox or Safari etc.

Default user image.

Aleh Cherp

Professor, Coordinator of the MESPOM Consortium

Default user image.

National growth dynamics of wind and solar power compared to the growth required for global climate targets

Author

  • Aleh Cherp
  • Vadim Vinichenko
  • Jale Tosun
  • Joel A. Gordon
  • Jessica Jewell

Summary, in English

Climate mitigation scenarios envision considerable growth of wind and solar power, but scholars disagree on how this growth compares with historical trends. Here we fit growth models to wind and solar trajectories to identify countries in which growth has already stabilized after the initial acceleration. National growth has followed S-curves to reach maximum annual rates of 0.8% (interquartile range of 0.6–1.1%) of the total electricity supply for onshore wind and 0.6% (0.4–0.9%) for solar. In comparison, one-half of 1.5 °C-compatible scenarios envision global growth of wind power above 1.3% and of solar power above 1.4%, while one-quarter of these scenarios envision global growth of solar above 3.3% per year. Replicating or exceeding the fastest national growth globally may be challenging because, so far, countries that introduced wind and solar power later have not achieved higher maximum growth rates, despite their generally speedier progression through the technology adoption cycle.

Department/s

  • The International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics

Publishing year

2021-07

Language

English

Pages

742-754

Publication/Series

Nature Energy

Volume

6

Issue

7

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Nature Publishing Group

Topic

  • Energy Systems

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 2058-7546