
Aleh Cherp
Professor, Coordinator of the MESPOM Consortium

Historical precedents and feasibility of rapid coal and gas decline required for the 1.5°C target
Author
Summary, in English
To limit global warming to 1.5°C, fossil fuel use must rapidly decline, but historical precedents for such large-scale transitions are lacking. Here we identify 147 historical episodes and policy pledges of fossil fuel decline in 105 countries and global regions between 1960 and 2018. We analyze 43 cases in larger systems most relevant to climate scenarios. One-half of 1.5°C-compatible scenarios envision coal decline in Asia faster than in any of these cases. The remaining scenarios as well as many scenarios for coal and gas decline in other regions have precedents only where oil was replaced by coal, gas, or nuclear power in response to energy security threats. Achieving the 1.5°C target will be difficult in the absence of fossil fuel decline mechanisms that extend far beyond historical experience or current pledges.
Department/s
- The International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics
Publishing year
2021
Language
English
Pages
1477-1490
Publication/Series
One Earth
Volume
4
Issue
10
Document type
Journal article
Publisher
Cell Press
Topic
- Economic History
Keywords
- climate change mitigation
- climate mitigation scenarios
- coal phase-out
- energy transitions
- feasibility
- fossil fuel decline
- fossil fuel phase-out
- integrated assessment models
- IPCC scenarios
Status
Published
ISBN/ISSN/Other
- ISSN: 2590-3330