Aleh Cherp

Energy security crises have historically been turning points for energy systems, exposing vulnerabilities, reshaping policy priorities, and boosting technological change. However, whether—and to what extent—such crises accelerate low-carbon transitions remains contested. This paper examines the effects of the 2022 energy crisis on the European Union (EU)’s energy transition, using policy analysis combined with a quantitative assessment of renewable energy trends, forecasts, and targets. We analyse the ambition, implementation, and outcomes of the REPowerEU plan, the main response to the crisis. In an unprecedented move, REPowerEU securitised renewable energy as a means to reduce dependence on Russian energy imports. However, the plan only moderately increased earlier renewable energy targets and did not reverse declining subsidies despite more forceful implementation measures. Its effects have been uneven across technologies. Already accelerating solar may overshoot its targets, onshore wind might only slightly accelerate beyond its current steady growth, and offshore wind remains constrained by economic and institutional uncertainties. Despite increased subsidies for fossil fuels, coal continued declining, oil remained stable, and natural gas dropped. Overall, REPowerEU sustained rather than transformed the EU’s low-carbon transition, illustrating both the potential and limits of accelerating decarbonisation under security crises.