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Energy security of China, India, the EU and the US under long-term scenarios: Results from six IAMs

  • Jessic Jewell
  • Aleh Cherp
  • Vadim Vinichenko
  • Nico Bauer
  • Tom Kober
  • David McCollum
  • Detlev van Vuuren
  • Bob van der Zwaan
Publishing year: 2014
Language: English
Publication/Series: Climate Change Economics
Document type: Journal article
Publisher: World Scientific

Abstract english

This paper assesses energy security in three long-term energy scenarios (a business as usual development, a projection of Copenhagen commitments, and a 450 scenario) as modeled in six integrated assessment models: GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, ReMIND, TIAM-ECN and WITCH. We systematically evaluate potential long-term vulnerabilities of vital energy systems of four major economies: China, the European Union, India and the US, as expressed by several characteristics of energy trade, resource extraction, and diversity of energy options. Our results show that climate policies are likely to lead to significantly lower global energy trade and reduce energy imports of major economies, decrease the rate of resource depletion, and increase the diversity of energy systems, particularly in the especially vulnerable transportation sector. China, India and the EU will derive particularly strong benefits from climate policies, whereas the US may forego some opportunities to export fossil fuels in the 2nd half of the century.


  • Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
  • energy security
  • climate change


  • Global Energy Assessment
  • ISSN: 2010-0086
Aleh Cherp
E-mail: aleh [dot] cherp [at] iiiee [dot] lu [dot] se

International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics (IIIEE)

Lund University P.O. Box 196, 22100 Lund, Sweden
Visiting Address: Tegnérsplatsen 4,Lund

Telephone: + 46 46 222 00 00 Fax: + 46 46 222 02 10